Slim odds for all the uproar

The model that projects coronavirus (CV) caseload applies New York City and New Jersey numbers to the rest of the country. Since most of the country doesn’t live the way those people live (apartments, subways -- all packed in and jammed together), that’s a major flaw in the model that predicted in some instances several times more cases than have actually been recorded. For example, it predicted that over 121,000 people nationwide would be hospitalized with CV on April 1. The actual number was 31,142, about 25% of the prediction. That averages to 623 per state. In my state (Arizona) with its population of about 7m, that’s one person of every 11,236, or less than one percent of one percent. And that’s by far the worst-case scenario. With wide, wide spaces, Arizonans live widely spread out. Our 7m people are about 37% of New York State’s population of about 19m. A rough-and-ready estimate using their numbers would be that our number of CV cases should...(Read Full Post)
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