Don't get cocky Republicans: The election ain't over 'til it's over

With slightly less than two months until the election, the Republicans are joyously crying "The Republicans are coming to Washington!  The Republicans are coming to Washington!" including this esteemed site.

Now, far be it from this non political analyst to disagree with expert political analysts Rick Moran or Richard Baehr.  I certainly hope they are correct.  But I am a cautious- - ok, sometimes, too cautious- - individual.  And so I ask, will all this self confidence from polling data make some Republicans lax and over confident in these final months, discourage some from not voting because victory is theirs while frightening Democrats to really, really increase their get out the vote efforts and also indulge in some of their uhm, voting chicanery?

Apparently I'm not the only skeptic. Aaron Blake of the Washington Post offers Democrats some hope and me some worry.

The best news for Democrats in the new WaPo poll

President Obama is a drag on Democrats this year, any way you slice it. His disapproval rating has been hovering around 60 percent in the key Senate states, that hasn't gotten better, and 55 percent of registered voters rate his presidency as a "failure." The history of an unpopular president's party in midterm election is even gloomier.

But tucked inside Tuesday's new Washington Post-ABC News poll is a semi-encouraging figure for Democrats: Among the clear majority of Americans who disapprove of Obama (54 percent), a little bit less than three-quarters of them say they are voting Republican in the coming election -- just 72 percent.

I say "just" 72 percent, because that's in contrast to the 85 percent of Obama approvers who say they will vote for Democrats. In other words, opposing Obama is not an analogue for voting Republican in the upcoming election. And that's why Democrats still have at least a fighting chance to keep the Senate (current generic ballot: 46 percent for Democrats, 44 percent for Republicans). (bold added)

It's not really all that surprising. After all, Democrats in many key races are running well ahead of Obama's approval rating in their states.

So, for those who hope for a Republican victory, don't relax until November 5. As  former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Virginia)  might  remind us, "It ain't over til it's over."

With slightly less than two months until the election, the Republicans are joyously crying "The Republicans are coming to Washington!  The Republicans are coming to Washington!" including this esteemed site.

Now, far be it from this non political analyst to disagree with expert political analysts Rick Moran or Richard Baehr.  I certainly hope they are correct.  But I am a cautious- - ok, sometimes, too cautious- - individual.  And so I ask, will all this self confidence from polling data make some Republicans lax and over confident in these final months, discourage some from not voting because victory is theirs while frightening Democrats to really, really increase their get out the vote efforts and also indulge in some of their uhm, voting chicanery?

Apparently I'm not the only skeptic. Aaron Blake of the Washington Post offers Democrats some hope and me some worry.

The best news for Democrats in the new WaPo poll

President Obama is a drag on Democrats this year, any way you slice it. His disapproval rating has been hovering around 60 percent in the key Senate states, that hasn't gotten better, and 55 percent of registered voters rate his presidency as a "failure." The history of an unpopular president's party in midterm election is even gloomier.

But tucked inside Tuesday's new Washington Post-ABC News poll is a semi-encouraging figure for Democrats: Among the clear majority of Americans who disapprove of Obama (54 percent), a little bit less than three-quarters of them say they are voting Republican in the coming election -- just 72 percent.

I say "just" 72 percent, because that's in contrast to the 85 percent of Obama approvers who say they will vote for Democrats. In other words, opposing Obama is not an analogue for voting Republican in the upcoming election. And that's why Democrats still have at least a fighting chance to keep the Senate (current generic ballot: 46 percent for Democrats, 44 percent for Republicans). (bold added)

It's not really all that surprising. After all, Democrats in many key races are running well ahead of Obama's approval rating in their states.

So, for those who hope for a Republican victory, don't relax until November 5. As  former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Virginia)  might  remind us, "It ain't over til it's over."