Will Boehner cave on immigration?
Harry Reid thinks so.
Harry Reid thinks so.
Despite his public statements to the contrary, House Speaker John Boehner will meet with Senate leaders to negotiate comprehensive immigration reform in 2014 - at least, Harry Reid says he will.
In an interview with The Hill, the Senate Majority leader says he thinks the Speaker, emboldened against tea party groups, will take the issue up in conference with the Senate.
"I think that John Boehner will conference with the Senate. Why wouldn't he? He'll have a lot of pressure from his members now that the election is getting closer," Reid said.
Reid, D-Nevada, argues that popular support for an immigration deal will push members of Boehner's caucus toward a deal. Boehner, who recently stood up to more conservative elements of his party in supporting the debt deal, will lead the way, according to Reid.
"Some of his members are in very marginal districts where they need to do something on immigration," Reid said.
All signs from the Speaker's office, however, still say no. Like other Republicans, Boehner has said he favors a piece-by-piece approach.
"I'll make clear we have no intention ever of going to conference on the Senate bill," he said last month, adding, "I want us to deal with this issue, but I want to deal with it in a common-sense, step-by-step way."
The 1200-page Senate bill includes increased border security and patrolling, as well as a pathway to citizenship for millions of immigrants in the country illegally.
It is the latter element that has outraged conservatives. Many decried the move as "amnesty," with the backlash so strong that even Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, who authored the Senate bill, moved to support the House's piecemeal approach.
"I think when you try to do anything big in Washington it ends up running into headwinds. Now that's the direction the Senate went. I wanted to influence that process so I got involved in it. But I continue to believe that a series of sequential individual bills is the best way, the ideal way, to reform our immigration system," said Rubio in an interview with CNN anchor Kate Bolduan.
Any bill that contains a path to citizenship won't even be considered by the House. This puts Reid, Chuck Schumer, and President Obama in a tough spot. All three have said that there will be no immigration reform without a path to citizenship for illegals.
Many Republicans may want immigration reform - at least the piecemeal approach favored by Boehner and the leadership - but few would stomach the kind of "comprehensive" reform passed by the Senate earlier this year.
There's a small chance that some klnd of status for the illegals already here could be negotiated - something less than citizenship. But that wouldn't sit well with Democrats in the Senate so it is unlikely to come to pass.
Expect immigration reform to be taken up by the House early next year.