October 9, 2020
Presidential Opinion Polls – Déjà vu All Over Again?
Presidential pollsters have short memories. It was a mere four years ago that most pollsters faceplanted after predicting a Hillary Clinton landslide victory. Rather than humility and introspection after such wildly inaccurate predictions, they have doubled down and may be falling into the same trap of wishful thinking as they did in 2016. Opinion polls are only as good as their samples. Assessing President Trump’s popularity in Boulder versus Sturgis would yield vastly different results based on the population being surveyed. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 1 showed Joe Biden with a 14-point lead over President Trump, 53 to 39 percent, up from an 8 point lead a week earlier. That’s it then, game over. Time for Biden to start packing for his move from his basement to the White House. YouTube screen grab Who was polled to give Biden such a commanding lead? Looking at the poll internals, something the media...(Read Full Article)