September 8, 2019
Dems want an election recession. Should we expect one?
The Democrats are hoping recession will topple Donald Trump in 2020. Will that happen? The answer requires some history. For two centuries, the long-term economic growth of the United States has been nearly 2% per capita, per year. The total economic growth rate includes the growth in population. For much of our history, the population growth rate averaged about 1.5% per year, giving a total GDP growth rate of 3.5% per year. In this figure, note the disturbance caused by the Great Depression. What happened is instructive: the dip in the curve is followed by a high growth rebound of increased slope, which brings the GDP back up to the long-term growth line by 1940. The modern definition of recession is at least two successive quarters of negative growth. Technically, as soon as positive growth starts again, we are no longer in recession, but are in recovery. By this modern standard, the...(Read Full Article)